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CESD just received the latest NESDEC Student Enrollment Forecast that is based upon our October student enrollment numbers that we reported to the MDOE. NESDEC is projecting our student enrollment will increase by 1.3% by 2032-2033.

NESDEC included this narrative summary in the report:

The global pandemic continues to influence our nation’s public health and economic stability in unpredictable ways. As such, it is still too early to identify many of the factors that could impact school enrollments. Over the past school year, we have seen fluctuations in the real estate market and job trends, which have impacted student attendance patterns. Moreover, during the past school year, we have seen how school enrollment patterns can differ substantially from one district to another, with some districts losing students while others experience an influx of students.

We are pleased to send you this report displaying the past, present, and projected enrollments for the District. These ten-year projections are designed to provide the District with yearly, up-to-date enrollment information that can be used by boards and administrators for effective planning and allocation of resources. Included in this report are graphs representing historical and projected grade-by-grade enrollments, as well as historical and projected enrollments in grade combinations. We have received the figures given to us by the District, and we assume that the method of collecting the enrollment data has been consistent from year to year.

Enrollment projections are more reliable in Years #1-4 in the future and less reliable in the “out-years.” Projections six to ten years out may serve as a guide to future enrollments and are useful for planning purposes. In light of this, NESDEC has added a “Second Semester refresher” enrollment projection at no cost to affiliates. (For more information, please refer to the Reliability and Use of This Document section).

The NESDEC enrollment projection fell within -53 students of the K-12 total, 1,456 students projected vs. 1,509 enrolled. One variance of -17 students occurred at Kindergarten, 107 projected vs. 124 enrolled. Ratios have been adjusted.

Births decreased by -6 from a previous ten-year average of 64 to a projected average of 58. In most districts, enrollments in Grades 1-8 are very stable environments. However, there have been increases in 6 of the 8 most recent years, leading to a net increase averaging 18 students per year.

Over the next three years, K-4 enrollments are projected to increase by 14 students, Grades 5-8 enrollments are projected to increase by 22 students, and Grades 9-12 enrollments are projected to decrease by -53 students, as students move through the grades.